recurring revenue
The predictability premium
High recurring revenue means high earnings visibility — and usually a premium multiple. Companies here are highlighting subscription mix, net revenue retention, and backlog growth as proof of durability.
What Executives Are Saying
“We're driving continued growth by focusing on four key areas: making our service better, bringing Airbnb to more parts of the world, expanding what we offer, and integrating AI into our app.”
“Our AI assistant has already reduced people's need to contact a human agent by around 15%. It's also helped some people get significantly faster help, cutting the typical resolution time from hours to seconds.”
“In Q3 2025, almost half of experiences bookings were not attached to an Airbnb accommodations booking.”
“The average growth rate of nights booked on an origin basis in our expansion markets was twice that of our core markets over the last twelve months.”
“We're currently building out AI-powered search that will let people have a conversation with the app about what they're looking for so we can help them design the perfect trip.”
“First-time bookers increased over 20% in Japan and nearly 50% in India on a year-over-year basis.”
Companies in This Theme
Bank of America delivered strong Q3-2025 results with net income up 23% YoY to $8.5B. Net interest income grew 9% to $15.2B as NII expansion continued. Investment banking fees surged 43% YoY and sales & trading revenue jumped 9%, signaling robust capital markets activity.
Broadcom is the picks-and-shovels winner of the AI infrastructure buildout. AI semiconductor revenue grew 74% YoY and is guided to double YoY next quarter to $8.2B. Infrastructure software (VMware) integration is delivering 19% growth with expanding margins.
Aflac is executing well across both Japan and U.S. segments. Japan cancer insurance product Miraito is driving 11.8% sales growth. U.S. group life and disability momentum is real, with earned premiums growing and persistency at 79%.
Airbnb is accelerating on multiple fronts: nights booked re-accelerated to 9% YoY, expansion markets growing 2x core, and Reserve Now Pay Later is unlocking incremental demand. New services/experiences vertical is attracting net-new users—half of experiences bookings are standalone.
Aon posted 7% organic revenue growth across all four segments with expanding adjusted margins. Middle market expansion is accelerating, M&A services and construction saw double-digit growth, and NFP integration is delivering cost synergies. Insurance brokerage demand remains strong with robust retention and net new business wins.
AJG delivered its 19th straight quarter of double-digit top-line growth. Insurance renewal premiums remain in positive territory with no signs of economic slowdown. The $13.8B AssuredPartners acquisition closed and integration is off to a strong start, adding massive scale.
Assurant is firing on all cylinders. Double-digit EBITDA growth across both Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. Connected Living subscriber growth and mobile trade-in performance are accelerating, and lender-placed insurance is benefiting from voluntary insurance market pressure — meaning more homeowners are losing coverage and being forced into Assurant's products.
Shopify is firing on all cylinders. 32% revenue growth with 18% FCF margins at this scale is rare. Merchant solutions growing 38% YoY signals massive adoption of payments, shipping, and capital products beyond core subscriptions.
Xylem delivered 8% revenue growth with double-digit gains in two segments and 200bps of EBITDA margin expansion. Raised full-year guidance on both revenue and EPS. Resilient water infrastructure demand and simplification initiatives are compounding.
Fortinet is firing on all cylinders — 14% revenue growth, 18% product revenue growth, and record operating margins. FortiSASE billings up 100%+ YoY signals a platform consolidation wave that benefits security vendors with integrated stacks. The Secure AI Data Center launch positions them at the intersection of two mega-trends.
CrowdStrike is firing on all cylinders. Record net new ARR of $265M accelerating 73% YoY signals cybersecurity budgets are expanding, not contracting. The Falcon Flex consolidation model is driving multi-module adoption and platform lock-in across endpoint, cloud, identity, and SIEM.
Zoom is stabilizing with 4.4% growth and crushing it on profitability — 41% non-GAAP margins and 50% FCF margins. Enterprise is the growth engine at 6.1%, but Online remains sluggish at 2%. NRR at 98% means the installed base is still slightly contracting.
Revenue growth nearly flat at 0.7% YoY but margin expansion is real — gross profit up 4.9% on lower facility operations costs. Copart is squeezing more profit from a stable top line while sitting on $5.2B in cash.
HubSpot is firing on all cylinders. 21% revenue growth, 17% customer growth to 278,880, and margin expansion all point to strong SMB/mid-market demand. AI agents are landing with customers and driving platform consolidation.
Axon is on a seven-quarter streak of 30%+ growth with ARR accelerating to 41% YoY. Software & Services now 43% of revenue with 124% net revenue retention. Public safety budgets are flowing and enterprise expansion into retail, healthcare, and logistics is opening a second growth vector.
This is an 8-K filing shell, not a full transcript. Cencora is reorganizing its reporting structure into U.S. Healthcare Solutions, International Healthcare Solutions, and Other — signaling strategic focus on core pharma distribution and exploration of alternatives for MWI Animal Health, Profarma, and U.S. Consulting.
IBM is firing on all cylinders with 7% revenue growth — highest in years — driven by z17 mainframe strength, accelerating AI book of business at $9.5B inception-to-date, and $4.5B in AI-powered productivity savings. All segments accelerated sequentially. Guidance raised across revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow.
This filing is a segment reorganization 8-K, not an earnings call. Intuit merged Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProTax into a single Consumer segment effective August 1, 2025. No operational commentary or financial guidance was provided.
PayPal doubled down on its balance-sheet-light BNPL model with an expanded KKR partnership covering up to €65B in European receivables. This signals capital discipline and growing confidence in European BNPL volumes. No earnings data disclosed — this is a partnership press release, not an earnings call.
Competitor Mentions Across This Theme
| Competitor | Mentions | By | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| AssuredPartners | 8 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| KKR | 8 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| Red Hat | 5 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| Woodruff Sawyer | 4 | 1 company | NEUTRAL |
| AWS | 4 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| Willis Towers Watson | 3 | 1 company | NEUTRAL |
| NVIDIA | 3 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| HashiCorp | 3 | 1 company | BULLISH |
Operator Implications
If you sell into financial services or depend on capital markets activity, the environment is highly favorable. Lending volumes are up across the board — commercial loans grew 13% YoY — meaning enterprise buyers at banks and their clients have expanding budgets. Plan your sales cycles accordingly.
If you're building anything that touches data center infrastructure — networking, orchestration, security — Broadcom's dominance in custom AI accelerators and Ethernet switching means their ecosystem is the one to build on or integrate with. Their hyperscaler customer concentration is a feature, not a bug: follow the capex.
If you're building or selling into the voluntary benefits or supplemental insurance space, Aflac's aggressive product launches and distribution expansion signal a more competitive market — but also validate growing employer demand for these products.
If you're building in travel or marketplace services, Airbnb's expansion into services and experiences signals they're becoming a local commerce platform—not just lodging. The $200M annual investment in this vertical means they'll subsidize supply acquisition, compressing margins for standalone experience startups.
If you're building insurtech or selling into risk management budgets, the spend environment is healthy — Aon's broad-based growth signals enterprise buyers are actively investing in risk and benefits advisory, not cutting.
If you're selling into insurance brokerages or risk management buyers, budgets are expanding — AJG alone added 10,900 employees in one quarter via acquisition. This is a sector consolidating fast; partner early or get squeezed out.
If you're building in the device protection, home warranty, or embedded insurance space, Assurant's expanding reach through OEM and carrier partnerships is raising the competitive bar. Their new financial services program signals they're moving beyond protection into adjacent verticals — expect them in more RFPs.
If you're building on or competing with Shopify's ecosystem, their merchant solutions flywheel is accelerating — they're monetizing the full commerce stack, not just storefronts. Build where they aren't yet or prepare to be bundled.
If you're selling into water or municipal infrastructure, budget cycles are expanding not contracting — Xylem's organic growth acceleration and raised guidance signal that utilities and industrial buyers are spending through macro uncertainty.
If you're building anything that touches enterprise networks or AI infrastructure, budget is flowing toward consolidated security platforms. Point solutions are getting squeezed — partner with or build on platforms like Fortinet's rather than competing head-on.
If you're building security tools, CrowdStrike's platform consolidation play is swallowing adjacent categories fast — cloud security, identity, SIEM. Either integrate with Falcon or find a niche they haven't reached yet. If you're a buyer, Falcon Flex pricing creates real consolidation leverage worth evaluating.
If you're building in the collaboration or contact center space, Zoom's AI Companion push signals they're bundling AI features into existing seats — not charging separately. That compresses standalone AI tool pricing in this category. Compete on workflow depth, not AI features.
If you sell into insurance or auto claims workflows, Copart's flat revenue signals stable but not growing volume — plan for steady-state demand, not a tailwind.
If you're building in the SMB/mid-market CRM or marketing automation space, HubSpot is pulling away. Their AI agent strategy is creating switching costs — the window to win customers before they consolidate onto HubSpot is narrowing.
If you're building for public safety or enterprise physical security, Axon is consolidating the stack fast — from body cams to 911 dispatch to drones. Either integrate into their ecosystem or prepare to compete against a $2.7B-revenue platform with $11.4B in contracted backlog.
If you sell into Cencora's non-core units (animal health, consulting, PharmaLex components), watch for divestitures — your buyer may change.
If you sell into enterprise IT, IBM's clients are spending — especially on AI transformation and infrastructure modernization. The z17 cycle and AI consulting demand signal real budget allocation, not just pilots. Position your product as part of the AI deployment stack, not a net-new budget line.
Intuit consolidating its consumer-facing businesses signals a platform play — expect bundled offerings across tax, credit, and personal finance that raise switching costs for end users and squeeze standalone competitors in each vertical.
If you're building in European BNPL or embedded lending, PayPal is scaling aggressively with institutional capital backing — expect them to be a more aggressive competitor in EU markets through 2028.