fx headwinds
What Executives Are Saying
“We've built a strong foundation, with best-in class cost management and a focus on strengthening the balance sheet. Looking forward, I'm confident that continued investments in our network, customer experience and loyalty program will position us well to drive revenue growth and shareholder value in 2026 and beyond.”
“The American Airlines team is delivering on our commitments.”
“During the third quarter, we made solid progress in areas within our control, as we navigated a highly dynamic global environment. We advanced our portfolio optimization initiatives, accomplished cost savings through targeted streamlining, efficiently ran our plants, and generated robust cash flow.”
“Looking forward, we expect biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for our industry. However, based on the environment since our last earnings call, we are revising our 2025 full-year expectations primarily to reflect lower crush margins.”
“We are a company built to endure cycles, and our asset network, combined with our skilled workforce, will remain a source of reliable strength for our farmers, customers, partners and investors.”
“Aflac delivered very solid earnings for the quarter and the first nine months. These results reflect our focused efforts to execute on our strategy of creating long-term value for shareholders.”
Companies in This Theme
Alphabet just posted its first $100B quarter with double-digit growth across every major segment. Cloud accelerated to 34% growth with $155B in backlog. Capex guidance raised to $91-93B for 2025, signaling massive infrastructure buildout that benefits the entire cloud and AI ecosystem.
JNJ is firing on both cylinders. Innovative Medicine grew 5.3% operationally with blockbuster oncology and immunology franchises offsetting STELARA biosimilar erosion. MedTech grew 5.6% operationally driven by electrophysiology and cardiovascular. They raised full-year sales guidance from $93.4B to $93.7B midpoint.
Crushing margins collapsed 93% as deferred U.S. biofuel policy killed demand. Full-year EPS guidance slashed from ~$4.00 to $3.25-$3.50. The only bright spots are Nutrition (up 24%) and ethanol pricing, but they can't offset the structural margin compression in the core oilseeds business.
KEYTRUDA franchise keeps powering ahead at 10% growth, and WINREVAIR's 141% ramp is validating the cardiovascular expansion thesis. But GARDASIL's 24% decline in China is a structural headwind, not a blip. The $70B+ domestic manufacturing commitment signals long-term confidence but compresses near-term margins.
Record Q3 revenue of $13.7B but still posted a net loss. Unit revenues declining across most regions. Cost pressure from labor (+8.9% YoY) is real, but fuel savings and debt reduction provide a cushion.
Aflac is executing well across both Japan and U.S. segments. Japan cancer insurance product Miraito is driving 11.8% sales growth. U.S. group life and disability momentum is real, with earned premiums growing and persistency at 79%.
Aon posted 7% organic revenue growth across all four segments with expanding adjusted margins. Middle market expansion is accelerating, M&A services and construction saw double-digit growth, and NFP integration is delivering cost synergies. Insurance brokerage demand remains strong with robust retention and net new business wins.
Air Products is in strategic reset mode — exiting $3.7B in clean energy projects, cutting costs globally, and refocusing on core industrial gases. Europe is the bright spot with 15% operating income growth. Americas margins compressed 380bps on higher maintenance costs and volume loss.
Avery Dennison is holding steady in a tough environment but organic sales were flat. Materials Group is seeing deflation-related price reductions eating into volumes. Solutions Group is the bright spot with Intelligent Labels growing mid-single digits and Vestcom/Embelex both up double digits.
Box office down 11% YoY in Q3 but AMC gained US market share and hit record admissions revenue per patron of $12.25. Heavy debt load remains the existential risk — $4B in corporate borrowings against negative free cash flow. Q4 film slate is strongest in years.
Hollister is crushing it with 16% growth, but Abercrombie brands are decelerating — down 2% with inventory being managed tightly. Tariffs are eating 210 basis points of operating margin this quarter, with ~$90M full-year tariff expense baked into guidance. Revenue growth is real but profitability is compressing — operating margin dropped from 14.8% to 12.0% YoY.
Orthodontic and dental markets remain mixed, especially in North America. International markets (EMEA, APAC, LatAm) are driving volume growth. Restructuring charges of $88M signal serious cost-cutting underway while teens/kids category is a bright spot at 8.3% YoY growth.
Celanese is in full-on cash preservation and deleveraging mode against a macro backdrop that refuses to improve. Sequential net sales declined 4%, auto builds fell 2%, and consumer/medical/industrial demand remains below normal. The only bright spots are self-help cost cuts and inventory discipline — not demand recovery.
PepsiCo is under activist pressure from Elliott and responding with aggressive cost cuts, SKU rationalization (20% reduction), and plant closures. They're guiding 2-4% organic revenue growth for 2026 after essentially flat 2025 — signaling the consumer staples giant is grinding for growth. Core EPS declined ~0.5% in 2025.
Competitor Mentions Across This Theme
| Competitor | Mentions | By | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmar International | 4 | 1 company | CAUTIOUS |
| LaNova Medicines | 4 | 1 company | NEUTRAL |
| Taylor Swift | 3 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| Disney | 3 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| AstraZeneca | 3 | 1 company | NEUTRAL |
| Daiichi Sankyo | 3 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| Verona Pharma | 3 | 1 company | BULLISH |
| Angelalign Technology | 2 | 1 company | THREATENED |
“ADM's portion of a penalty imposed on Wilmar International Limited, a company in which ADM has an equity investment”
— on Wilmar International
Operator Implications
If you're building on Google Cloud or selling AI infrastructure services, this is a green light — Google is flooding the zone with capex and customer demand is accelerating. The $155B backlog means enterprise cloud budgets are committed, not exploratory.
If you're building in healthcare or selling into hospital systems, JNJ's accelerating MedTech spend — especially in electrophysiology, AI-powered surgical tools like VIRTUGUIDE, and cardiovascular devices — signals strong institutional budgets and appetite for innovation in surgical workflows.
If you're selling into ag-tech or biofuel supply chains, budget cycles are frozen until Washington provides biofuel policy clarity — probably not until mid-2026. Shift sales focus to Nutrition/flavors customers where ADM is actually growing.
If you're selling into pharma or hospital systems, KEYTRUDA subcutaneous approval (one-minute administration) is about to reshape infusion center economics — watch for procurement cycle changes in oncology clinics.
If you sell into airline or corporate travel budgets, the spend is there but margins are razor-thin — expect procurement to squeeze harder on vendor pricing even as travel volumes hold steady.
If you're building or selling into the voluntary benefits or supplemental insurance space, Aflac's aggressive product launches and distribution expansion signal a more competitive market — but also validate growing employer demand for these products.
If you're building insurtech or selling into risk management budgets, the spend environment is healthy — Aon's broad-based growth signals enterprise buyers are actively investing in risk and benefits advisory, not cutting.
If you're selling into industrial gas or clean energy infrastructure, expect delayed timelines and tighter vendor scrutiny as APD rationalizes its project portfolio. Their $4B capex plan for FY2026 signals continued spending but with far more discipline on returns.
If you're selling into retail or supply chain digitization, the RFID/intelligent labels wave is real and accelerating — Avery's Solutions Group growth confirms enterprise buyers are actively spending here even as broader materials demand softens.
If you're building anything adjacent to theatrical distribution or experiential entertainment, the recovery is real but fragile — it's entirely dependent on studio release cadence, not structural demand growth.
If you're selling into retail or consumer discretionary, the bifurcation is the signal: value-oriented brands (Hollister) are thriving while premium positioning (Abercrombie) is softening. Tariff costs are being absorbed, not passed through — watch for margin pressure to intensify in Q4.
If you're selling into dental or orthodontic practices, expect North American budgets to stay tight. International expansion and pediatric/teen segments are where the growth is — orient your GTM accordingly.
If you sell into any Celanese end-market — auto, industrial, construction, coatings — budget cycles are frozen. Their entire strategy is cost-cutting and deleveraging, not growth investment. Don't expect procurement teams at materials companies to greenlight new vendor relationships until demand visibly turns.
If you sell into CPG or food retail supply chains, PepsiCo is consolidating hard — 3 plant closures, 20% SKU cuts, and go-to-market restructuring mean vendor relationships are being re-evaluated. Get ahead of procurement changes now or risk being rationalized out.