guidance lowered
What Executives Are Saying
“During the third quarter, we made solid progress in areas within our control, as we navigated a highly dynamic global environment. We advanced our portfolio optimization initiatives, accomplished cost savings through targeted streamlining, efficiently ran our plants, and generated robust cash flow.”
“Looking forward, we expect biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for our industry. However, based on the environment since our last earnings call, we are revising our 2025 full-year expectations primarily to reflect lower crush margins.”
“We are a company built to endure cycles, and our asset network, combined with our skilled workforce, will remain a source of reliable strength for our farmers, customers, partners and investors.”
“Stanley Black & Decker delivered solid third quarter results, despite prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Our performance included continued growth in our DEWALT brand, year over year gross margin expansion and solid free cash flow.”
“The gross margin progress achieved during the third quarter illustrates our rapid and effective response to tariffs and our commitment to achieving our long-term financial objectives.”
“We are well positioned for profitable growth and are focused on creating significant value from our powerful brands and businesses to generate long term revenue growth, margin expansion, cash generation and shareholder return.”
Companies in This Theme
Crushing margins collapsed 93% as deferred U.S. biofuel policy killed demand. Full-year EPS guidance slashed from ~$4.00 to $3.25-$3.50. The only bright spots are Nutrition (up 24%) and ethanol pricing, but they can't offset the structural margin compression in the core oilseeds business.
Pricing power is strong (+5% price gains) but volume is falling hard (-6% total, -7% in Tools & Outdoor). They're spending tariff-mitigation energy just to stay flat. The cost reduction program is nearly done ($1.9B of $2.0B target) which means the easy margin gains are behind them.
Celanese is in full-on cash preservation and deleveraging mode against a macro backdrop that refuses to improve. Sequential net sales declined 4%, auto builds fell 2%, and consumer/medical/industrial demand remains below normal. The only bright spots are self-help cost cuts and inventory discipline — not demand recovery.
Competitor Mentions Across This Theme
| Competitor | Mentions | By | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmar International | 4 | 1 company | CAUTIOUS |
| DEWALT | 4 | 1 company | BULLISH |
“ADM's portion of a penalty imposed on Wilmar International Limited, a company in which ADM has an equity investment”
— on Wilmar International
Operator Implications
If you're selling into ag-tech or biofuel supply chains, budget cycles are frozen until Washington provides biofuel policy clarity — probably not until mid-2026. Shift sales focus to Nutrition/flavors customers where ADM is actually growing.
If you're selling into construction, remodeling, or trades channels, volume is contracting despite price holds. Budget holders are buying less at higher prices — classic demand destruction signal. Plan for unit volume declines through H1 2026.
If you sell into any Celanese end-market — auto, industrial, construction, coatings — budget cycles are frozen. Their entire strategy is cost-cutting and deleveraging, not growth investment. Don't expect procurement teams at materials companies to greenlight new vendor relationships until demand visibly turns.